The second city of Ghana is located in the Ashanti region with strong tribal identities and social structures.
Peri-urban areas are growing mainly by middle class encroachment, under a dual ‘customary’ legal system, displacing the land and livelihoods of many indigenes.
In this tropical rainforest location, climate-environment risks include flooding, water scarcity, extreme heat and wildfire.
Kumasi region
(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).
Peri-urban-climate scoping
Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are 2 images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a ‘Causal mapping’ from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Kumasi pathways:
(In advance of consultation this is a general version with typical problems and pathways around the world).
Causal analysis
This puts the mapping above into analytic form with a summary table. For more see the Kumasi analysis
(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our 2 detailed case studies)
CLIMATE HAZARD
(World Bank data for Ashanti province)
Extreme heat - Medium
Wildfire - High
Water scarcity - Medium
River flood - High
Urban flood - High
Coastal flood - No data
Cyclone - No data
Tsunami - No data
Landslide - Low
Earthquake - Medium
Volcano - No data
Spatial mapping
The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.
Population density map
This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.
Population change map
Content coming soon.
Climate projections: temperature effects
(Top & middle parts include):
- temperature uplift and precipitation uplift, projected with the central ‘A1B’ scenario, for 2080-2100. Source: IPCC - AR4 - WG1 - Chapter 11-1 - https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter11-1.pdf
(Lower part includes):
- Comparison of projected temperature rise under B1, A1B, A2 emissions scenarios: Source - IPCC - AR4 - WG1 - Chapter 11-1
- Peak wet bulb temperatures 1979-2017: (note TW of 30-350 can be lethal). Source : https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2621/Dangerous-humid-heat-extremes-occurring-decades-before-expected
- Fire (2020 summer period) & forest cover maps (>30% canopy cover): Source https://www.globalforestwatch.org
Sources:
IPCC-WG1 2016
NOAA
Global Forest Watch