(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).
Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are two images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a 'causal mapping' from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Surabaya pathways:
This puts the mapping above into an analytic for with a summary table. For more see the Surabaya analysis:
(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our two detailed case studies).
(World bank data profile for Surabaya)
Extreme heat - Medium
Wildfire - High
Water scarcity - Medium
River flood - Medium
Urban flood - Medium
Coastal flood - High
Cyclone - No data
Tsunami - Medium
Landslide - Very low
Earthquake - Medium
Volcano - High
The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.
Population density map
This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.
Population change map
Climate projections: coastal flooding
Including sea level rise, tidal, and storm surge effects, this is a 'reasonable worst case scenario' for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from www.climate-central.org
Climate projections: river flooding
Including river flooding and related extreme events, this is a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from https://www.wri.org/resources/maps/aqueduct-global-flood-analyzer