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Surabaya analysis

Surabaya pathways

Surabaya resources

Surabaya is a port city on the Indonesian island of Java. A vibrant, sprawling metropolis, it mixes modern skyscrapers with canals and buildings from its Dutch colonial past. It has a rapidly growing
economy and metropolitan area with large hinterland and scenic landscape.

Peri-urban areas are mainly in larger private developments of middle class and worker housing,
mingling with traditional rice paddy cultivation.

Climate-environmental hazards are those of a tropical coastal city, with heat and flood amplified by
wildfire problems, with earthquake and volcanic risks in the background.

Surabaya region

(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).

Peri-urban-climate scoping

Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are two images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a 'causal mapping' from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Surabaya pathways:

System scoping drawing

System scoping diagram

Causal analysis

This puts the mapping above into an analytic for with a summary table. For more see the Surabaya analysis:

(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our two detailed case studies).

Climate hazard

(World bank data profile for Surabaya)

Extreme heat                                        - Medium
Wildfire                                                  - High
Water scarcity                                      - Medium
River flood                                            -  Medium
Urban flood                                          - Medium
Coastal flood                                        - High
Cyclone                                                  - No data
Tsunami                                                 - Medium
Landslide                                               - Very low
Earthquake                                           - Medium
Volcano                                                 - High

Spatial mapping

The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.

Population density map

This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.


Population change map

Coming soon.

Climate projections: coastal flooding

Including sea level rise, tidal, and storm surge effects, this is a 'reasonable worst case scenario' for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from


Climate projections: river flooding

Including river flooding and related extreme events, this is a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from


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