Cairo

Cairo region: location

(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).

Cairo Region: overview

Cairo is a historic megacity-region: rapid expansion with new settlements into surrounding desert, and a steady filling up of the delta and coastal area: the peri-urban faces multiple climate threats from flood, heat, drought and sea level rise, overlaid on a problematic governance system.

Peri-urban syndromes: (a) in desert areas new satellite towns & cities are lacking in connections & livelihoods: (b) in delta & riverine areas, densification & sprawl into low-lying landscape of complex water systems: widespread conflict on land & ownership, encroachment & informal construction:

Climate change syndromes: riverine & flash flooding: sea level rise & incursion: general water stress with projections of drought & upstream flood: urban heat island & air pollution: new settlements are vulnerable in hostile environment: increasing extreme wet heat days:

Societal vulnerability: ongoing transformation of rural economies & livelihoods: rapid social change, migration & gentrification: disruption to traditional farming & landscape patterns:

Governance syndromes: top down system with widespread military / corporate / elite capture, bureaucratic fragmentation, informal construction & encroachment: climate awareness lacking so far (this may change at COP27):

Adaptive pathways: urban-rural linkages for ecosystems & livelihoods: landscape diversity & agro-ecology systems: integrated water & adaptation management: heat & drought management: social innovations & community resilience:

Adaptive governance: integrated regional climate-wise planning: formal government capacity building: civil society governance & participation systems: social & grassroots initiatives.

Cairo region: where is the peri-urban?

A historic and modern city with a very dense older core housing nearly 10 million, surrounded by a Greater Cairo Region (GCR) with an equivalent population. The Greater Cairo Region is defined as the Governorate of Cairo, Giza and Qalyubia: plus the new urban communities that are located around Cairo. Peri-urban development is concentrated in the expanding cluster of satellite cities and towns. However the entire Delta region including Alexandria, is in a similar peri-urban development pattern and density type, so is included here in the wider 200km hinterland of GCR. Cairo context

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Population density map

This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.

Cairo region: system mapping

Cairo region: summary data

Climate projections: river flooding

Including river flooding and related extreme events, this is a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from https://www.wri.org/resources/maps/aqueduct-global-flood-analyzer

Climate projections: coastal flooding

Including sea level rise, tidal, and storm surge effects, this is a 'reasonable worst case scenario' for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from www.climate-central.org

Climate projections: temperature effects

Top six images show annual, summer, and winter temperature, and precipitation changes. Bottom left shows projected temperature changes for a range of scenarios by 2100. Centre bottom shows daily temperature events within the top 0.1% recorded local temperatures from 1979 to 2017. Bottom right shows the 2010 forest cover.

Sources:

IPCC-WG1 2016

NOAA

Global Forest Watch

Cairo region: climate hazard

(World Bank data profile for Campania region)

Extreme heat                                                - Medium
Wildfire                                                          - High
Water scarcity                                              - High
River flood                                                    - High
Urban flood                                                  - High
Coastal flood                                                - No data
Cyclone                                                          - No data
Tsunami                                                         - No data
Landslide                                                       - Medium
Earthquake                                                   - Low
Volcano                                                         - No data