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Changsha pathways

Changsha analysis
Changsha resources

Changsha is a historic centre (home to Mao Tse-Tung in the 1920s). It is now a rapidly
expanding provincial capital, located on a large river system, with a fertile and
mountainous hinterland.

Peri-urban development is mainly in standard high rise blocks, which replace traditional
agricultural lands.

Climate risks include storm, heat, wildfire and urban flooding.

Changsha region

(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).

Peri-urban-climate scoping

Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are two images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a 'causal mapping' from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Changsha pathways:

System scoping drawing

System scoping diagram

Causal analysis

This puts the mapping above into an analytic for with a summary table. For more see the Changsha analysis:

(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our two detailed case studies).

Policy lab - causal effects

Climate Hazard

(World Bank data profile for Changsha)

Extreme heat                                                - High
Wildfire                                                          - High
Water scarcity                                              - Low
River flood                                                    - Medium
Urban flood                                                  - High
Coastal flood                                                - No data
Cyclone                                                          - High
Tsunami                                                         - No data
Landslide                                                       - Low
Earthquake                                                   - Very low
Volcano                                                         - No data

Spatial mapping

The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.

Population density map

This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.


Population change map

Content coming soon.

Climate projections: coastal flooding

Including sea level rise, tidal, and storm surge effects, this is a 'reasonable worst case scenario' for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from


Climate projections: temperature effects

(Top & middle parts include):

(Lower part includes):

Changsha climate projections temp effects

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