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Guangzhou

Guangzhou pathways

Guangzhou analysis

Guangzhou resources

Guangzhou is a historic port which has grown into the heart of the most populous metropolitan area in China. With 12 million residents in the city limits, and 46.7 million living in the wider city area, and growing Guangzhou is on of the largest cities on earth.

Guangzhou

Peri-urban-climate scoping

Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are two images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a 'causal mapping' from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Guangzhou Pathways:

System scoping drawing

System scoping diagram



Causal analysis

This puts the mapping above into an analytic for with a summary table. For more see the Guangzhou analysis:

(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our two detailed case studies).

Policy lab - causal effects



Climate hazard

(World Bank data profile for Guangzhou)

Extreme heat                                                - High
Wildfire                                                          - High
Water scarcity                                              - Medium
River flood                                                    - High
Urban flood                                                  - High
Coastal flood                                                - High
Cyclone                                                          - High
Tsunami                                                         - Medium
Landslide                                                       - Low
Earthquake                                                   - Low
Volcano                                                         - No data

Spatial mapping

The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.

Population density map

This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.

GHSL_Guangzhou_Pop1km_2015


Population change map

Content coming soon.

Climate projections: coastal flooding

Including sea level rise, tidal, and storm surge effects, this is a 'reasonable worst case scenario' for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from www.climate-central.org

GHSL_Guangzhou_Flood_risk_2080

Climate projections: temperature effects

(Top & middle parts include):

(Lower part includes):

Guangzhou climate projections temp effects.jpg

Sources:

IPCC-WG1 2016

NOAA

Global Forest Watch

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