Naples Metropolitan Area is home to more than 4 million people, one of the largest urban agglomerations in the South of Italy.
Naples Metropolitan Areas developed from a monocentric spatial structure, with Naples being the growth centre surrounded by rural landscapes. In the last 50 years however, Naples has been growing rapidly with expansion of urban areas proliferating to the outskirts. Based on an observation conducted by Papa and Mazzeo (2014), Naples urban expansion was very intense in early 2000s, where the urban built up areas doubled within the inner peri-urban zone. Most of the urban investment proliferated to the north peri-urban, which brought massive land use conversion. Until recently, more than 50% of Naples’ north peri-urban landscapes have been urbanised.
According to an observation on the pattern of peri-urbanisation, it was found that Naples’ peri-urban fabric has a low spatial fragmentation (OECD, 2018). However, this might not confirm the absence of socio-spatial fragmentation, or the observation was limited only at the inner peri-urban zones
Lower density development was found in the further peri-urban zones where spatial fragments are prevalent, characterised by heterogeneity of economic activities. Indications of illegal peri-urban development were found apparently due to time gaps between periods where landscapes were urbanising and the delayed spatial regulation addressing strict zoning controls. Transport infrastructure was also built to respond to problems (e.g. congestion) instead of a result of deliberate peri-urban planning (Papa and Mazzeo, 2014).
Temperature shows an overall warming of 1.0 ± 0.1 °C. over the last century. Temperature is set to increase between 2.0 °C and 5.1 °C by 2099 (SRES A1B / RCP6.0 scenario, balanced energy source scenario 700 ppm by 2100).
Observed increase in daily precipitation events, even in areas with a decrease in mean precipitation. Predicted decrease in average precipitation of 4% to 26% by 2099. Predicted decrease of cold days, increase of heatwaves duration, days with temperature 5 °C above normal value. Sea level rise of 3mm/year over the 1990’s.
Ecosystems expected to migrate north
Predicted reduction in electricity generation from hydropower, generation already reduced by 23% between 2001 and 2005.
Reduced availability of potable water, reduced water for thermoelectric power plants.
Growing period increase of 10-15 days per °C increase in yearly average temp. 5% of floods caused by climate change will be occurring on the coast near Rome and Naples.
Increases in summer heat related mortality. Decreases in winter cold related mortality. Changes in disease burden. Increases in risk of accidents from extreme weather. Impacts on mortality due to extreme events.
Increase in water borne disease outbreaks could increase due to extreme rainfall (rainfall or drought).
A 1 °C, increase in summer temperature reduces agricultural land values by 62%, a 1 °C increase in spring increases land values by 37%.
In 2004 groundwater accounted for 99.7% of drinking water requirements in Campania (wider Naples region), groundwater recharge is decreasing due to decreased precipitation, and increased evapotranspiration due to warmer temperatures. Infiltration reduced by up to 30% from 1980s to 2000s, if the trend continues it is expected that in 50 years ground water resources will decrease by about 70%. If this trend continues by 2050 6 million people in Campania will face a water crisis.
Impact on Italian farmland value is estimated to be between +1.5% to -15.8% by 2100.
Uptake of air conditioners was expected to be 14 million units by 2011, if this electricity continues to be generate by fossil fuels, the summer temperatures will continue to rise.
Forest fires are frequent in Campania, but as a result of better citizen education the number of fires is decreasing.
White Certificates systems aim to promote energy efficiency and reducing emissions.
Campania region have run a ‘save energy public campaign’
until 2014, Italy does not have a national urban policy, but the role of the state has been quite strategic by promoting the restructuring of provincial government, which enables cities to take responsibilities for managing and authorizing development at local levels. To ensure a nation-wide control over local urban development agenda, an inter-ministerial panel for urban policy was established in 2012 aiming to address issues of (1) institutional cross-boundary matters and make necessary interventions for enhanced policy-making, (2) urban sprawl with close observation on the need to support the provision of regional infrastructure, and (3) to maintain strategic management with regards to the provision of housing (OECD, 2017)
One of the biggest challenges for Italy’s spatial governance is the longstanding organized crime and corruption. Another point to be raised is the prevalence of declining areas in the peri-urban (particularly in the former industrial sites in the east and west peri-urban). In respond to this, Italy has established a new town planning scheme in 2004 which aims to restore and regenerate the neighborhoods (Urbact, n.d).