peri-cene logo

Toronto

Toronto

(The map here shows circles of 20, 40 & 60km radius, a rough approximation to the gravity field).

Peri-urban-climate scoping

Using visual thinking for the deeper complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions, here are 2 images. The first is a flip-chart sketch and overview of the problem. The second is a ‘Causal mapping’ from the Peri-cene Framework, with basic problems and pathways. For more see the Toronto pathways

(In advance of consultation this is a general version with typical problems and pathways around the world).

System scoping drawing

System scoping diagram


Causal analysis

This puts the mapping above into an analytic for with a summary table. For more see the Toronto analysis.

(In advance of consultation this version is a comparison of our two detailed case studies).

Policy lab - causal effects

Climate hazard

(World Bank data profile for Toronto)

Extreme heat                                                - Medium
Wildfire                                                          - High
Water scarcity                                              - Very low
River flood                                                    - Very low
Urban flood                                                  - Low
Coastal flood                                                - No data
Cyclone                                                          - Low
Tsunami                                                         - No data
Landslide                                                       - Very low
Earthquake                                                   - Very low
Volcano                                                         - No data

Spatial mapping

The Peri-cene takes a practical approach to the complexity of peri-urban-climate interactions. The base-maps here build on the JRC-GHSL (Global Human Settlements Layer) system of urban mapping with 1 km2 cells http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu . In this way the peri-urban definition and mapping is not a final answer, but the start of the discussion. For more on the questions of 'where is the peri-urban?' and 'how is it changing?' download the D3-1 report.

Population density map

This shows three population density bands: 0-50, 50-125, and 125-300 persons/km2: (transparent for open land, and then green and yellow cells). These are in different proximities to the main urban centres, for the moment defined by distances (from the urban centre), of 0-20, 20-40, and 40-60km: titled 'near-urban', 'near-urban: further urban: and ex-urban / peri-rural'.

GHSL_Toronto_populationdensity_2015


Population change map

Content coming soon.

Climate projections: river flooding

Including river flooding and related extreme events, this is a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ for 2080, with reduced policy and pessimistic modelling. This is based on the mapping from https://www.wri.org/resources/maps/aqueduct-global-flood-analyzer

GHSL_Toronto_riverineflood_populationdensity_2015


Climate projections: temperature effects

(Top & middle parts include):

(Lower part includes):

Toronto climate projections temp effects

Return to article index